Friday, November 11, 2011

What Caused The Recession And How Long Will It Last?

Yesterday I had the great honor of meeting John Sharp, Chancellor of Texas A & M University. We were attending the "Higher Education Summit" at Texas A & M University in Corpus Christi.

Chancellor John Sharp has impeccable financial credentials having been the Texas State Comptroller from 1991 to 1999 and having served in the Texas House and in the Texas Senate, as Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee. I give great credence to whatever he has to say about financial matters.

During the Summit, Chancellor Sharp was interviewed by Rep Todd Hunter about the general shape of Texas financial affairs. It was a revealing interview. Apparently Texas as a State has a bright future. During the interview the Chancellor commented on the current recession and presented a theory on the cause and its possible duration.

We have heard many people give forth on this subject but after Chancellor Sharps comments, yesterday, I realize that they are all wrong. Chancellor Sharps correct explanation is deceptively simple and has gone unrecognized by most even though the he explained it in a prediction over 10 years ago.

As he explained it, there are two factors that created the "recession" and that will keep it running much longer than any of us expect. Neither of these factors was the fault of the policies of either George Bush or Barack Obama. Interestingly, if Obama had known the cause, he might never have run for office!! I believe that Obama truly believed that a change in fiscal policy would cure the problem. He was wrong, it was not "Bushes fault".

The first, chronologically, was the Second World War. It created the "Baby Boom" which put a bulge in the population growth curve of the United States. The second was the end of the "Cold War". Actually this could also be attributed to the Second World War which set up the environment that created the Cold War in the first place, so maybe there was only one cause.

The Baby Boom created a huge increase in the consumer demand by increasing the number of consumers. This meant that industry needed to expand and retail outlets needed to expand to service the demand. This expansion was contained in the United States, at that time, because the Cold War did not allow for the exportation of manufacturing to China, Korea, etc. to take advantage of the lower costs of offshore plants. This in itself increased the number of jobs available for the growing population. The economy of the United States, after the Second World War, began a great expansion, internally, to satisfy the demand of the Baby Boomers, and all was well.....or was it?

Then the easing of tensions between the US and Russia began, the Thawing of the Cold War. And then the ending of the cold war, beginning in 1985 with the election of Gorbachev. Then in 1989 the destruction of the Berlin Wall and finally, by 1991 the "war" was over.

Once the Cold War was over it was possible to export jobs and manufacturing to China and other former states of the Russian alliance. Suddenly, the job base in the United States began to contract. This happened while the Baby Boomers were still in the job market.

Now as the Baby Boomers are leaving the job market and the job market is shrinking because of outsourcing, our economy is contracting, fewer consumers, fewer jobs. Will it end soon, probably not, according to Chancellor Sharp, because the productivity demand of the Baby Boom is slowly ending as the bulge moves past. Also, there is no impetus for the re-importation of our industry either because of increased demand or because costs have increased overseas. So the prospects for an early ending of the current recession are dim.

Chancellor Sharp suggests that the recession could last another 8 to 10 years.

This explanation is the simplest and most plausible that I have heard yet. It makes the blaming of Wall Street, Barney Frank, George Bush, 911, the Tsunami in Japan, etc. all pale by comparison. Only this theory is big enough to encompass Europe as well as the US and tell us why it is lasting when we were told it was over. Being an engineer I am a believer in the KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) principle. This is a very simple but very powerful explanation. I believe it.

"You shall know the truth and the Truth shall set you free."

Jim Isbell
=================================================================
The Free Republic
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July 3rd 2010 Speech
April 17th 2010 Speech
Trinity Base - in Defense of our Republic
Ronald Reagan was Right
American Majority
Red State
Blog Mirror of The Free Republic
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Friday, October 14, 2011

The End Of The Experiment

I am a research scientist (retired). For many years I have known that I could often solve a problem be "sleeping on it". This works because your subconscious mind knows things and remembers everything that your conscious mind either doesn't know or has forgotten. When you sleep your subconscious mind takes over and consolidates and relates facts that you cannot do in a conscious state.

Last night I had a dream.

In the dream I discovered what Obama is doing and what the results of his tampering will be.

To start out, Obama, began establishing "Czars" to run many new agencies. These Czars are accountable, only, to him. They are not elected nor are they approved by Congress. They are totally out of the democratic process. Currently the number for Obama is at 38, 33 of which have NOT been confirmed by the Senate.

Click Here for Czar Reference

Did you know that Obama appointed an "Asian Carp Czar"...I didnt... But we are paying his salary.

Two days ago, Obama stated that he would bypass congress on the so called "Jobs Bill". This is not the first time he has said this and done this. It is becoming an established pattern. Up until now we have ignored his rantings, recognizing that Congress controls the purse strings.

My dream revealed the plan.

In the dream, Obama assigned four new Czars. Each of the four would preside over ten of the sub Czars (the 38 already appointed + 2 new ones). These four "Super Czars" were for Military, Religion, Economy, and Health. They were not elected and they were not subject to Senate approval.

When Obama wanted something done he went down the chain to the appropriate Czar and by "executive order" he had regulations (these are NOT laws) drafted that he then enforced through the DOJ and financed through regulatory fees. He also controls the IRS through regulatory authority so in fact he was able to collect taxes and distribute the bounty as HE alone saw fit.

As commander in chief for the armed forces he had, along with the DOJ, a police force that he alone controlled.

Obama was able to reward those that came his way with favors and punish those that refused to comply with rationing of health care, excessive taxes, and arrest and imprisonment for "technical violations".

Now, he did nothing to remove Congress or the Supreme Court, he just set up a parallel dictatorship to the side of Congress, and over time as death took its toll on the Supreme Court he replaced the Judges with like minded people.

In the end, democracy was alive and neutered sitting on the sidelines while Dictator Obama ruled the United States. The democratic experiment had come to an end.

This is where I woke up. This is when I decided I had to write this expose.

This may sound a bit over the top and you may be saying, "That would never happen because good people would stand up and fight it." But you are wrong. It could and IS happening right now for the same reasons it happened in Germany before the Second World War. The people that are in positions of power are afraid to resist because of the power of Obama Care, the Department of Justice, and the IRS and they rationalize their non resistance by saying, "If I am taken out because I spoke up, then the person that replaces me will be worse, so I will comply so that I can moderate the effects of this terrible leader" Believe me, I have felt the same feelings and so far, I resist them. When I started this piece I asked myself, "Is it better that I write this or that I go under the RADAR and try to keep in the shadows where I wont be hurt? Maybe I can help more being in the shadows instead of jail?"

Have you heard of Non-Goverment Organizations (NGOs)? Have you heard the phrase "Sustainable Development"? Have you heard of Adgenda 21? These are all "Big Brother" taking control of our lives OUTSIDE of democracy, outside of popular voting, controlled from the top by governmental agencies that are led by Czars that are controlled by Obama...or whoever is in the White House at the time. Look these terms up on Wikipedia and educate yourself. I did this just this morning. Up until now I have heard these terms and I have generally decided that to look them up wasn't worth my time.

Maybe I waited too late, but maybe there is still time to make sure the democratic experiment continues. Let us hope so.

"You shall know the truth and the Truth shall set you free."

Jim Isbell
=================================================================
The Free Republic
=================================================================

July 3rd 2010 Speech
April 17th 2010 Speech
Trinity Base - in Defense of our Republic
Ronald Reagan was Right
American Majority
Red State
Blog Mirror of The Free Republic
My Facebook

Friday, October 7, 2011

The 10-10-10 plan

I don't understand why we have to settle for "9" when we could be a "10"

Herman Cain has his 9-9-9 plan and I fully support it as a great improvement over the current system. But it falls short of a full 10 and we can achieve that.

I am not running for office.....right now.....but if asked I would run and if I did run, I would put the 10-10-10 plan on top of the 9-9-9 plan and the US would be a leader once again.

The 10-10-10 plan

First, I would drop the tax on repatriated money, some say 2 trillion dollars, from 35% to 10%. There is no sense in having a 35% tax on something that in effect keeps the event from occurring. 10% of something is worth much more than 35% of NOTHING.

Not only would the US get 200 billion in taxes IMMEDIATELY as the money came back into the country, and you can bet your life it would come back as they scrambled to take advantage of the lowered taxes before someone changed their mind, but with it would come millions of JOBS. Jobs that will remain in India and China and other countries as long as our government heavily taxes profits coming back into the country.

In one fell swoop, a 70% reduction in taxes on repatriated money would bring in 200 billion MORE in taxes to the government coffers and would add millions of jobs for our unemployed. Remember, we are collecting NONE of the 35% tax because the money will stay offshore. And as long as the money is offshore the jobs will remain offshore.

Second, I would begin collecting the 10 trillion in royalties and taxes that would be available to the US government if oil drilling were opened up in the United States. It really doesn't matter what side you are on as to whether we should GO GREEN. If you love oil and want it to last forever and don't believe in "Peak Oil" then you are for opening up the oil industry. But if you are all GREEN then you should champion a move that would deplete our reserves as soon as possible so that GREEN becomes the ONLY way. As long as the oil is there, green wont happen.....or do you not really believe what you are saying about "Peak Oil"? You cant have it both ways.

Another immediate effect of freeing up oil development would be an immediate drop in oil prices world wide as the futures market absorbed the realization that there would be a lot more oil available in a very short time.

Third, I would eliminate the Income Tax and REPLACE it with a 10% consumption tax on all sales of NEW products. Too often I hear the idea of a sales tax or a consumption tax, but barely is there mention of closing down the IRS. Usually the new taxes are proposed as being in addition to the Income Tax. Just getting rid of the IRS would free up half a Trillion a year in efforts to comply with the outrageously complex IRS code.

These three proposals would immediately put 3/4 of a Trillion dollars into the economy in the first year they were enacted. and another 10 Trillion in tax income in the next several years as the oil industry ramped up.

AND, as all this money flowed into the country and into the treasury and as all those jobs came back from overseas, the economy would BOOM and tax revenues would increase in leaps and bounds as the new wages gave people money to spend and to be taxed at 10%.



"You shall know the truth and the Truth shall set you free."

Jim Isbell
=================================================================
The Free Republic
=================================================================

July 3rd 2010 Speech
April 17th 2010 Speech
Trinity Base - in Defense of our Republic
Ronald Reagan was Right
American Majority
Red State
Blog Mirror of The Free Republic
My Facebook

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Hummingbird Poop All Over Everything!!!

This morning as I sat on the front porch watching, perhaps, a thousand hummingbirds feed at the 5 feeders on my porch, I was made aware of a problem, the accumulation of hummingbird poop.

My house is on the last point of land in this area from which the hummingbirds can take off on their fall journey to Mexico. They feed here by the thousands. Last year, during the 45 day season of their migration, I estimated that about 50,000 hummingbirds came through and fed at my house. 50 birds at each of five feeders, all day long. We used 50 gallons of syrup. Next year instead of using quart bottles to feed them and having to refill twice a day, I will put up a 55 gallon barrel, painted red. Then I wont have to refill it all the time.

But back to the point. As I sat there I glanced to an area between the trees where they roost and my porch. This area is an 8 foot opening in the trees and in the morning the sunlight shines through the area such that it glints off of anything in the air there. I noticed, what appeared to be, several rain drops falling. It wasn't rain, it was hummingbird poop. As I watched I realized that at about 3 second intervals I would see this phenomenon. I then realized that the area under their flight path was getting pummeled with poop.

I immediately covered my coffee cup with my hand!!!

While I watched, my cat came out onto the porch and began pacing up and down under the feeders. The hummingbirds would move away from the area where she was and then close in behind her. Just staying out of reach.

Apparently, coffee seasoned with hummingbird poop has a mind stimulating effect on me. I began to think of politics and realized that there was a simile here. The hummingbirds are like politicians that flit around here and there, trying to get something for nothing. Everywhere they go they leave a layer of poop on everything. The poop accumulates, and accumulates, like the regulations and laws that continue to confuse our body of law making jobs for lawyers....and no one else... Someone needs to clean up the hummingbird poop and quit worrying about all the stimulus, tax reductions, and jobs bills. If the poop was cleaned up the finely tuned machine that the US Constitution created would run smoothly and effortlessly instead of being slowed to a halt by all the crap.

Unfortunately, most efforts at clean up are like the cat. The TEA Party is like the cat. As it strolls up and down the politicians move away at arms distance and just try to stay out of reach. Then, as the TEA Party moves on, they return.

Lets have am amendment to the Constitution, a "Sunset rule", like the state of Texas has. Lets clean up all the hummingbird poop in the Federal Law.

"You shall know the truth and the Truth shall set you free."

Jim Isbell
=================================================================
The Free Republic
=================================================================

July 3rd 2010 Speech
April 17th 2010 Speech
Trinity Base - in Defense of our Republic
Ronald Reagan was Right
American Majority
Red State
Blog Mirror of The Free Republic
My Facebook

Monday, September 26, 2011

Obama halts global warming!!! But Perry doesnt believe it.

But while sea level was going down due to the entrapment of sea water in the ice caps, caused by the cooling of the poles. Rick Perry is still contending with the wild fires in Texas that Obama says were caused by global warming. Governor Perry doesnt think so.

I recieved the following email this morning:
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President Barack Obama should take credit for his ability to “alter sea level,” according to a tongue-in-cheek article on the Climate Depot website.

In a June 2008 speech, candidate Obama said his presidency would be “the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal.”

The website declared, “Climate Depot can now announce it is official,” noting that the European Space Agency had determined that a two-year-long decline in global sea level “was continuing at a rate of 5 millimeters per year.”

In August of this year, NASA announced that global sea level was dropping and was “a quarter of an inch lower than last summer.”

Global warming alarmists frequently warn that rising global temperatures will lead to a steady rise in sea level that will threaten coastal communities around the world, and cite that threat in calls for action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Noting the recent findings regarding dropping sea levels, Climate Depot facetiously stated: “Most surprising, despite the fact that Obama only said he would ‘slow’ the rise of the oceans, his presidency has presided over what some scientists are terming an ‘historic decline’ in global sea levels. Obama appears to have underestimated his own powers to alter sea level.

“President Obama’s success in lowering sea level has not gone unnoticed. The skeptical website Real Science made sarcastic note of Obama’s ‘healing of the climate’ in June.”

Real Science declared: “Obama should declare ‘mission accomplished’ and take credit!”
===================================================================

But then, wouldn't he have to apologize to Rick Perry for saying the the fires in Texas were caused by global warming?

I think he is caught between a Hot and a Cold place.........



"You shall know the truth and the Truth shall set you free."

Jim Isbell
=================================================================
The Free Republic
=================================================================

July 3rd 2010 Speech
April 17th 2010 Speech
Trinity Base - in Defense of our Republic
Ronald Reagan was Right
American Majority
Red State
Blog Mirror of The Free Republic
My Facebook

Thursday, September 1, 2011

What The Hell??

Things are going from bad to worse. In engineering we have the KISS principal. KISS stands for Keep It Simple, Stupid. The principal simply put, in accordance to the principals teachings, is that simple things are safer to administer/operate/use.

The helicopter is, perhaps, the most complicated single device in the world, “10,000 parts flying in close formation”. I have heard that for every hour that some models fly they spend two hours in the shop. It is their lack of simplicity that makes them so unreliable. More parts means more things that can go wrong.

It is the health systems lack of simplicity that makes it more dangerous to your health than it needs to be. It was recently stated to me, by an Emergency Room doctor, that “The ER is one of the most dangerous places you can be.” The reasoning is that if you are there it is because you need help. But in the ER you may not get help for 10 to 12 hours if it is crowded!! Emergency is not usually defined as “needed in 12 hours”, it means needed NOW.

Ten days ago my wife and I were traveling through Colorado when she was stricken by an intestinal blockage and we had to go to an ER for help. Emergency surgery was indicated as her kidneys were going into shutdown! Several hours later she was out of surgery and all was well.....until......they decided to do an ultra sound exam of her legs and found a superficial clot in the right leg. Now she needed to have blood thinners to prevent the clot getting to her lungs. But having just had surgery this was contradicted! She was started on blood thinners and they were watching her blood levels to control the level. Apparently Cumadin is not easy to control. A week later she was discharged and flew to Austin to recover at our daughters home. Two days later the blood thinners struck!! She started bleeding in her intestines and, again, we headed for an ER. The ER didnt have the needed equipment to handle the case so she was transported by ambulance to ANOTHER hospital. So, now its a new staff with new concerns and just a sketchy view of the past. Stop the Cumadin, insert vitamin K, insert clotting factor, stop the bleeding! Ok, now the bleeding is stopped, redo the sonogram. Guess what the clot is now in the left leg and the one in the right leg is GONE and the new one no longer superficial!!! So, quickly insert a “filter” into the return vein to the heart to catch any clot that breaks loose. But “they” say that if a clot breaks loose and plugs up the “filter” the lower body becomes painful and swollen and you cannot walk. So which is worse, death quickly by pulmonary embolism or slowly and painfully by lower body deterioration and kidney failure?? If the filter is inserted and nothing is caught it was a waste of time inserting it, but if it works you die slowly instead of fast. Is that a decision you need to make? If you want to avoid both methods of death you dont insert the filter and you hope nothing breaks loose. Ok, the filter is now inserted so we dont have to start the Cumadin again, right? Wrong, the Cumadin needs to be restarted to make sure the clot is dissolved...OR...that if it breaks loose it will be dissolved in the filter before it blocks the filter. So now we worry about slow death from blocked lower body blood return, or death by bleeding to death.

This whole episode is an engineers nightmare. The KISS principal was not used in dealing with this situation. Everyone pulled out his/her tool kit and hit the line running. The prognoses is, from best to worst, clot dissolves within three months and the filter is removed (after three months the filter cannot be removed!!!!) to some form of disability or death as noted above.

But can you imagine how it would have gone under ObamaCare? With committees deciding at each step of the way whether this was financially reasonable. Whether, at 73 it is reasonable from a life expectancy viewpoint? How long for each step even if decided in favor?


"You shall know the truth and the Truth shall set you free."

Jim Isbell
=================================================================
The Free Republic
=================================================================

July 3rd 2010 Speech
April 17th 2010 Speech
Trinity Base - in Defense of our Republic
Ronald Reagan was Right
American Majority
Red State
Blog Mirror of The Free Republic
My Facebook

Sunday, August 28, 2011

Balanced Budget Amendment


Definitions to apply to the following language of this amendment:

Balanced Shall mean that there will be NO deficit spending and the budget shall not increase the national debt. Decreasing the debt or underspending revenues shall be allowed.

Declared War Shall mean that a war was declared by the president and the declaration was approved by both houses of congress as is specified in the Constitution of the United States.

Declared Natural Disaster
Shall mean that the House of Representatives shall pass a bill, by a 2/3rds majority,to declare, for a period of one year and ONLY one year, that a naturally occurring disaster has occurred and that it affects a specific portion of the country. The Senate shall then pass that SAME bill by a 2/3rds majority and the President of the United States will sign that bill.

Exempt Shall mean that it is NOT subject to the "Balanced Budget Amendment"

Naturally Occurring Shall mean any weather disaster, earthquake, volcanic, meteor impact, tsunami, and infectious disease. It shall not include global climate change effects.

A Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution of the United States

This amendment to the Constitution of the United States establishes that the annual budget of the United States shall be balanced in expenditures and revenues and will not add to the national debt in any one year. It shall be permissible to reduce the national debt.

There are two areas of spending that will be Exempt from this amendment, Declared Natural Disasters, as defined above and Declared War, as defined above.

1) Declared Natural Disasters must be re-declared annually as stated in the definition above. All expenditures that are exempted from this amendment MUST BE direct expenses relating to the declared natural disaster and will be exempt ONLY to the extent that they exceed 5% of the total annual budget, and ALL the expenses for any particular natural disaster whether exempted because they are above the 5% limit or within that first 5% MUST BE direct expenses related to the declared natural disaster..

Examples of allowed expenses are:

a) infrastructure repairs to the original state,

b) relocation of disaster victims,

c) housing, food and medical expenses of disaster victims

Non-allowed expenses would include, but not be limited to such things as:

a) improvements on the infrastructure. These would fall under other headings such as Corps of Engineer budgets and normal infrastructure improvement budgets and be non-exempt for that reason.

b) continued support of disaster victims past one year,

All allowed expenses will only be approved one year at a time subject to a re-enactment of a subsequent, one year, Declared Natural Disaster bill.

2)Declared War expenses will be exempt ONLY to the extent that they exceed 5% of the total annual budget, and ALL the expenses for any particular war whether exempted because they are above the 5% limit or within that first 5% MUST BE direct expenses related to the declared war.

Examples of allowed expenses are:

a) weapons, equipment, training, and facilities for troops

b) transportation of troops,

c) housing, food and medical expenses of troops

Non-allowed expenses would include, but not be limited to such things as:

a) infrastructure improvements within the United States,

b) weapons research, etc. that fall under the usual military expenditures needed to maintain a standing military force.

"You shall know the Truth and the Truth shall make you free."

Jim Isbell
=================================================================
The Free Republic
=================================================================

July 3rd 2010 Speech
April 17th 2010 Speech
Trinity Base - in Defense of our Republic
Ronald Reagan was Right
American Majority
Red State
Blog Mirror of The Free Republic
My Facebook